Tool
Expected points calculator
Enter each team's xG for a match. The calculator turns them into win, draw and loss probabilities and the points each side could expect.
How it works
Each side's goals are treated as a Poisson process with a mean equal to its xG. Summing the probability of every scoreline gives the three result probabilities; expected points are three times the win probability plus the draw probability. It is the same simple model most public xG tables use, and it has the same blind spots: it assumes chances are independent and ignores game state.