Tool
Expected points calculator
Enter each team's xG for a match. The calculator turns them into win, draw and loss probabilities and the points each side could expect.
How it works
Each side's goals are treated as a Poisson process with a mean equal to its xG. Summing the probability of every scoreline gives the three result probabilities; expected points are three times the win probability plus the draw probability. It is the same simple model most public xG tables use, and it has the same blind spots: it assumes chances are independent and ignores game state.
Read the definitions
- What Are Expected Points (xPts) in Football?
- What Is xG (Expected Goals) in Football? Explained
- What Is npxG in Football? Non-Penalty xG Explained
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