Expected Goals

Glossary · Essay

npxG: Why Analysts Strip the Penalties Out of a Striker's Numbers

Penalties inflate a striker's expected goals in a way that has nothing to do with open play. Non-penalty xG strips them out for a cleaner read on real chance creation.

10 Sep 2026 · 5 min read

Glossary · Essay

What Expected Goals Actually Measures (and What It Doesn't)

Every shot carries a probability of becoming a goal. Expected goals puts a number on that probability, and gets misread more often than almost any other stat in the modern game.

10 Sep 2026 · 6 min read