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Many small grey shot markers far from goal and three larger red ones close to it, contrasting shot volume with shot quality.

Glossary · Analysis

Shot Quality: Why the Average Chance Matters as Much as the Total

Shot quality is total xG divided by shots: the average chance a team creates or allows. Why volume and quality are separate levers, and where the number breaks down.

19 Sep 2026 · 6 min read

A diagram of several shots at goal, drawn as circles of different sizes converging on the goal mouth, with the highest-probability chance highlighted in red.

Glossary · Essay

What Expected Goals Actually Measures (and What It Doesn't)

Every shot carries a probability of becoming a goal. Expected goals puts a number on that probability, and gets misread more often than almost any other stat in the modern game.

10 Sep 2026 · 6 min read

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