Tool
Elo calculator
Enter two ratings. The calculator returns the expected result and how many points change hands after the match.
How it works
Win expectancy is 1 / (10^(−dr/400) + 1), where dr is the rating difference plus 100 points for the home side. A draw counts as half a win, so 0.62 does not mean a 62% chance of winning: it is the share of the points the model expects. After the match the ratings move by K × G × (result − expectancy). K depends on the type of match and G grows with the margin: 1 for a draw or a one-goal win, 1.5 for two goals, (11 + N) / 8 for three or more.
What it does not tell you
Elo knows results, not performances. It cannot see injuries, line-ups or how the goals came about, and a rating is only as current as the last match played. World Football Elo publishes national-team ratings; club ratings such as ClubElo use their own constants, so do not mix the two.
Formula: World Football Elo Ratings.
Read the definitions
Other tools
- xG calculatorClick a shot on the pitch and get its expected goals value.
- Expected points calculatorTurn two xG totals into win, draw and loss probabilities.
- PPDA calculatorPasses allowed per defensive action, from your own match counts.